I’m leaving San Francisco today for a quick two-week trip to Davao City - focused entirely on family.

Afterwards I (re)turn my attention to the design of a new practice based in Mindanao: Asian Energy Advisors.

In the meantime, since I’m in the business of supporting “decision making”, “strategy” and “policy” here is a concept I’m wrestling with on how to implement in the Philippine power sector and if you have thoughts on the matter, kick it back to me (us).

To tee it up, I’ll quote James Surowiecki from his book The Wisdom of Crowds:

… the fundamental truth about expertise is that it is … “spectacularly narrow”.

There’ no real evidence that one can become expert in something as broad as “decision making” or “policy” or “strategy.” Auto repair, piloting, skiiing, perhaps even management: these are skills that yield to application, hard work, and native talent.

But forecasting an uncertain future and deciding the best course of action in the face of that future are much less likely to do so.

And much of what we’ve seen so far suggests that a large group of diverse individuals will come up with better and more robust forecasts and make more intelligent decisions than even the most skilled “decision maker.”

If you believe in pushing these kinds of boundaries, or just have a sense that there is important value that can realized from the above observation, hop on board. Let’s do business.